Fears of an autumn of disquiet and a winter of discontent in the real-estate market may be growing, but in Arlington, summertime buyer interest remains strong, according to new data.
The county led all D.C.-region localities in the monthly T3 Home Demand Index, created by the Mid-Atlantic multiple-listing service Bright MLS, which tracks buyer interest to give an inkling what the future might hold.
Arlington scored a 208 on the June ranking, reported July 13. That’s up slightly from 205 for May, although down from 227 for April, and puts the county well above the regional average score of 120 (up from 118 a month before).
The ranking uses a variety of forward-looking data, such as visits to homes on the market, to settle on a monthly score for the Washington region’s overall homes market all the way down to the ZIP-code level.
The rating is an open-ended score with no ceiling. Arlington’s 208 for June puts it in the High category and well above the second community on the list, Alexandria, which rated 174.
Among other Northern Virginia localities, Falls Church rated 145, Loudoun County 141, Fairfax County 140 and the city of Fairfax 131. (Prince William County is not part of the scorecard.)
Other components of the ranking included the District of Columbia (111), Montgomery County (106), Prince George’s County (104) and Frederick County (91).
Assessing the situation from the granular level, Arlington’s 22206 ZIP code led the pack in the Sun Gazette coverage area with a score of 369, which remains blazing hot even though it was down from a torrid 409 two months ago.
Seven additional Arlington ZIPs were in the High category, albeit mostly down from springtime peaks: 22205 (288), 22213 (230), 22201 (208), 22203 (206), 22204 (204), 22207 (184) and 22202 (181). ZIP Code 22209 scored 125, in the Moderate category.
Despite the generally positive data, worries remain that a combination of prices that have spiraled in recent years, now coupled with spiking interest rates, could hobble the market at both the local and national levels by fall, when the region’s market traditionally cools anyway.
Locally, the condominium market already has seen a pullback (median sales prices are up only slightly over the past year) while “demand for higher-priced homes is beginning to ease,” Bright MLS said in parsing its June sales data.
Full data can be found at www.homedemandindex.com.