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ArlingtonReal EstateHigh point for 2022 Arlington home sales seems to have passed

High point for 2022 Arlington home sales seems to have passed

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The median single-family home-sales price in Arlington at the end of the year is expected to be about 9 percent lower than in the heat of summer, as the market continues to rebound to normal seasonality after COVID.

In their recently released mid-year forecast, the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors (NVAR) and Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University are projecting a median sales price for single-family homes in Arlington of $1.11 million in December, which would be down from $1.22 million in June, which is expected to be the peak month for home prices in the county for 2022.

But don’t feel too bad for sellers who missed out on the earlier frenzy; the $1,111,118 guesstimate for December’s median sales price is still up 7.7 percent from where it stood a year before.

And having a decline from summer to the end of the year is not, necessarily, an indication that the homes market is in rough shape. Such seasonality, at least in the pre-pandemic era, was the norm.

In its mid-year report, NVAR and Mason analysts said they had lowered expectations of home prices in Arlington, in party because the rate of price increases seen in 2021 was not sustainable over the long haul and higher interest rates were cutting further into affordability for some prospective buyers.

That said, “demand for all housing in Arlington is solid,” the analysts noted.

On the condominium front, the median sales price of $462,020 projected for December will be down from a median of $475,000 in February, when the market apparently peaked for the year, but still up 5 percent from a year before. Despite the drop, underlying fundamentals are “very solid,” the analysts noted.

In the townhome market, the median sales price projected for December is $821,111, well below the $920,250 recorded during the peak month of July but still up 13.3 percent from December 2021.

“Prices are somewhat flattening” in Arlington’s relatively small townhouse sector, the analysts noted, “but will stay pretty strong at year-end.”
Given the wild ride of the past two-and-almost-a-half years, it’s no surprise that crystal balls are a little cloudy when it comes to the future direction of the local real-estate market.

“It remains a complex market,” said Ryan McLaughlin, CEO of the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors.

“Even though our real-estate market is changing, it remains strong,” added Terry Clower, director of the Center for Regional Analysis.

While other regions of the country may be bracing for something of a correction in home values, the D.C. region probably has little to fear. The region remains buoyed as always by the federal government, and (as was the case in the run-up to the 2008-09 housing crash) prices have risen more modestly than in some areas of the country, which have seen boom times during the COVID era but may now have to give back some of the gains.

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