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FairfaxReal EstateFairfax home sales show both strength and seasonality

Fairfax home sales show both strength and seasonality

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Excepting 2020 (the reason being explained down below), Fairfax County’s real-estate market had its strongest September in a decade this year, with larger-than-normal sales totals and still-increasing (if not booming) prices across various market segments.

Whether this modest momentum can continue in coming months, however, remains an open question.

A total of 1,533 residential properties went to closing countywide last month, according to figures reported Oct. 12 by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing data from Bright MLS.

That’s down from 1,574 a year before, but the late summer and early autumn of 2020 were boosted by pent-up demand owing to restrictions in place during the earlier months of COVID.

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Taking a broader look – the 10-year period ending in 2019 – the range during that decade for Septembers went from 999 to 1,214 sales, making September 2021 a chart-topper.

Average (695,154) and median ($598,950) sales prices were marginally higher on a year-over-year basis, despite having fewer single-family homes in the overall sales mix compared to a year ago. Average prices were up in all three segments of the market:

• The average single-family home sold for $943,008, up 3 percent.

• The average attached home (townhouse, rowhouse, condominium) went for $466,892, up 4 percent.

• In the condominium market alone, the average sales price of $358,088 was up 5.7 percent.

A total of 199 properties changed hands for more than $1 million, including 19 for $2.5 million or higher and two at $5 million or more.

Add it all up, and total sales volume for the month stood at $1.06 billion, down less than a percentage point from last year.

Adding to the sense that the market is in good shape, the number of days required for a typical property to go from listing to ratified sales contract was effectively unchanged (18 compared to 19) from a year ago, although the average sales price compared to listing price of 99.5 percent was down from 100.2 percent.

Of properties that went to closing, conventional mortgages represented the method of transacting sales in 1,121 cases, followed by cash (173) and VA-backed loans (150).

The inventory of available properties on the market, while up 15 percent from a year ago, represented just slight more than a one-month supply – very constricted and representing a pro-seller environment.

How is the future looking? Pending sales reported in September were down 10.6 percent from a year before, although that also has to be taken in the context of last year’s fast-paced market.

Figures represent most, but not all, sales during the period. Figures for September 2021 are preliminary and are subject to revision.

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