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FairfaxFairfax average s/f home-sale prices again back under $1 million

Fairfax average s/f home-sale prices again back under $1 million

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The average sales price for single-family homes across Fairfax County took another dip from August to September, marking the second consecutive month average prices have been below the million-dollar threshold.

The declining average price likely is a reflection of both a market that has cooled considerably owing to economic malaise and higher interest rates on the one hand, coupled with a return to normal seasonal ebbs and flows of the marketplace on the other.

The 474 single-family properties that went to closing in Fairfax in August garnered an average $964,392, according to figures from MarketStats by ShowingTime based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

That’s up from the average $943,008 a year before, but was down from the $972,777 recorded in August. And the rate of year-over-year appreciation rate is declining: It was 2.3 percent from September 2021 to September 2022 but had been 2.6 percent in August and a whopping 11.6 percent in July.


The most recent two months of under-a-million average sales prices broke a string of eight consecutive months, and nine out of the preceding 10, where average single-family prices across Fairfax County were in the seven-figure arena:

• July: $1,043,000.
• June: $1,071,000.
• May: $1,051,000.
• April: $1,044,000.
• March: $1,119,000.
• February: $1,030,000.
• January: $1,062,000.
• December 2021: $1,001,000.
• November 2021: $937,000.
• October 2021: $1,034,000.

While the year-over-year average price rose just slightly in September in the single-family market, the increase was higher in the attached-home (townhouse/rowhouse) market, up 7.2 percent to $500,281. In the condominium market, is was up a modest 1.4 percent to $363,121.

Countywide, a total of 1,051 properties went to closing during the month, down 31.4 percent from 1,533 a year before, as both buyers and sellers seemed to be backing away owing to economic uncertainty.

A total of 153 properties went to closing across the county for more than $1 million, including six for more than $2.5 million and two for more than $5 million. Total sales volume for the month was $752.77 million, down 29 percent from $1.061 billion a year before owing to the sales dropoff.

Among indicators that market cooling has arrived in full force:

• The average home sale in September represented 97.8 percent of original listing price, down from 99.5 percent a year before and showing that the market has begun a tilt, if ever so slightly, in the direction of buyers after having been exceedingly pro-seller for two years.

• It took, on average, 24 days from a home to go from listing to ratified sales contract, up from 18 days a year before.

• The number of active listings on the market at the end of the month stood at 1,603, down 14 percent from a year before, and the number of new listings during the month was down 27 percent as some prospective sellers decided to await developments before testing the market.

Conventional mortgages represented the method of transacting sales across Fairfax County in 739 cases in September, followed by cash (161) and VA-backed loans (106).

Expect a sluggish winter, sales-wise, which before COVID was the norm rather than the exception in the local area. The number of pending sales reported in September across Fairfax was down 34 percent from a year before, suggesting the October-through-December sales figures will be more in line with the pre-COVID era than with 2020 and 2021, when the market stayed hot even as the temperatures coolege down.

Figures represent most, but not all, home sales in the market. All September 2022 figures are preliminary and are subject to revision.

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