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FairfaxReal EstateAverage Fairfax s/f home price remains stuck below $1 million

Average Fairfax s/f home price remains stuck below $1 million

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It could be some time (spring, maybe?) before the average sales price for Fairfax County single-family homes again surpasses the million-dollar mark, at least based on current conditions.

The average price of the 455 single-family properties that changed hands across the county in October stood at $991,124, up from $964,392 a month before but down 4.2 percent from the $1,034,460 recorded in October 2021, according to figures from MarketStats by ShowingTime based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

October marks the third month in a row where average prices have been under the seven-figure mark, after eight straight months (December 2021 to July 2022) where the average single-family home went for more than $1 million in Fairfax.

The county’s single-family market first surpassed the million-dollar threshold in October 2021, then slid back under it the following month before staying above it for much of 2022:

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• October: $991,124.
• September: $964,392.
• August $972,777.
• July: $1,043,000.
• June: $1,071,000.
• May: $1,051,000.
• April: $1,044,000.
• March: $1,119,000.
• February: $1,030,000.
• January: $1,062,000.
• December 2021: $1,001,000.
• November 2021: $937,000.
• October 2021: $1,034,000.

Despite the dropoff in average prices, there were still plenty of million-dollar sales across Fairfax in October. A total of 145 properties went to closing for above $1 million, including 12 for more than $2.5 million and one for more than $5 million.

While the year-over-year average price was down in October in the single-family market, it rose 5.9 percent to $492,167 in the attached (townhouses/rowhouses/condominiums) segment and was up 11.4 percent to $382,741 in the condo-only portion of the market.

Sales all of properties across Fairfax for the month totaled 907, down 39 percent from 1,476 a year before, as both buyers and sellers seem to have moved to the sidelines in hopes of finding improving conditions in the early months of 2023.

(And it looks like things are going to get worse before they get better, sales-wise, as the pending sales reported in October were down more than 47 percent from a year before, likely owing to a combination of affordability issues, high interest rates, general economic malaise and a return of seasonal norms in the local market.)

The combination of much lower sales activity and slightly lower average prices pushed the market volume for the month down 39.4 percent to $677.9 million. That dropoff of nearly $440 million in market activity from October 2021’s billion-dollar-plus month equates to roughly $22 million less flowing into the coffers of local real-estate firms and agents compared to a year before.

Homes that went to closing in October across Fairfax County spent an average of 25 days on the market, three more than a year before, and garnered 98 percent of listing price, down from 99.4 percent a year before.
Conventional mortgages represented the method of consummating the sale in 633 cases, followed by cash (141) and VA-backed loans (86).

With many homeowners deciding to wait out the winter market before putting homes up for sale, the number of new listings coming to market during the month (1,121) was down by a third from a year before. That is likely helping overall market health, as the more limited inventory is propping up prices rather than, as was the case in the real-estate bubble of nearly 15 years ago, causing almost a freefall as desperate sellers attempted to unload their homes to any available buyer.

Figures represent most, but not all, home sales in the market. All October 2022 figures are preliminary and are subject to revision.

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