While the regional homes market appears to be returning to seasonal norms – strong spring and summer, cooler fall and winter – a forward-looking index suggests the market should hold up well in coming months, if pricing expectations of sellers don’t get out of hand.
And the hottest areas of the region remain Arlington and Alexandria.
The T3 Home Demand Index, created by the Mid-Atlantic multiple-listing service Bright MLS, uses a variety of data points to settle on a monthly score for the Washington region’s overall homes market all the way down to the ZIP-code level.
In new data reported Nov. 10, the regional index figure stood at 127, still near the tippy-top of the “Moderate” range but down two points from a month before.
The factors used to compile the scores are activities that occur before the sales process transpires, so unlike monthly sales reports, the figures can be used as a forward-looking indicator. The baseline of 100 was in March after analysts looked at a year’s worth of data; there is no upper limit to how high a number can be reached.
Among all jurisdictions that make up the ranking, Arlington was the runaway winner with a countywide T3 index of 223, followed by Alexandria at 200 and Falls Church at 158.
Rounding out the rankings were Fairfax County at 147, the District of Columbia at 126, Loudoun County at 118, Prince George’s County at 117, Montgomery County at 116 and Frederick County at 88. Prince William County, which is not included in the cumulative total, was 181.
Arlington’s overall rating of 223 was down slightly from a month before, but a number of its geographic areas – including ZIP codes 22206, 22201 and 22202 – still in superheated territory.
In Fairfax County, ZIP code 22181 (Vienna area) clocked in at 180, highest among communities covered by the Sun Gazette. Other parts of the coverage area – the remainder of Vienna plus McLean, Great Falls, Dunn Luring and Oakton ZIPs – were on lower rungs of the ladder.
For the month, buyer interest in upper-end single-family homes cooled, perhaps owing to an environment that is seeing higher asking prices and ever so slightly higher mortgage-interest rates, plus a general nervousness owing to inflationary fears.
Upper-end condos, however, which had been in the doghouse during the early part of the COVID era, are seeing increased buyer interest.
For full data, see the Website at www.homedemandindex.com.